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IIHR Seminar: Alfonso Mejia

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April 28, 2017 @ 1:30 pm - 2:30 pm

| Free

Verifying a Regional Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System

Alfonso Mejia, Assistant Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Penn State

In this seminar, I will describe and demonstrate the quality and performance of a Regional Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System, hereafter the RHEPS, being developed at Penn State. The RHEPS is a multicomponent, ensemble-based research hydrological forecast emulator. The goal with the RHEPS is to enhance the skill and reliability of hydrological forecasts by facilitating the integration and rigorous verification of new system components, enhanced physical parameterizations, distributed observations, and novel assimilation strategies. In this case, the RHEPS is comprised by the following system components: ensemble weather reforecasts (1 to 7 days of lead time) from the GEFS, hydrological models, statistical weather preprocessor, statistical streamflow postprocessor, and verification strategy. I will describe and demonstrate the RHEPS through the following four case studies: i) verification of ensemble weather forecasts, ii) generation and verification of ensemble streamflow forecasts, iii) assessment of the relative roles of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing, and iv) generation and verification of multimodel hydrological forecasts. The case studies are implemented in the U.S. middle Atlantic region. Thus far, results from the RHEPS show improved skill and reliability for probabilistic forecasts over deterministic ones, and multimodel forecasts over single model ones. In addition, the advantages of preprocessing seem, for the most part, not as significant as those from postprocessing alone. Future work is examining skill gains from data assimilation.



April 28, 2017
1:30 pm - 2:30 pm


Stanley Hydraulics Lab
127 SHL
Iowa City, IA 52242 United States
Posted on April 26th, 2017

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